From May 19 to 21, the first ever Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia will take place in Termez, dedicated to the theme “Building Common Peace, Friendship, and Prosperity.” The event is a logical continuation of Uzbekistan’s constructive foreign policy aimed at strengthening ties between the two Asian regions and is focused on the practical implementation of the special resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2022, titled “Strengthening Connectivity between Central and South Asia.” This resolution was developed on the initiative of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in cooperation with 40 countries worldwide.

The establishment of a new platform for interregional cooperation, designed to strengthen political dialogue, expand economic links, and deepen cultural and humanitarian relations between the countries of Central and South Asia, is becoming especially relevant in the context of increasing geoeconomic interdependence and expanding transnational threats. It will undoubtedly make an important contribution to strengthening peace, stability, and security in the vast region of Central and South Asia.

In this context, the launch of the Termez Dialogue acquires strategic significance, offering a sustainable and inclusive platform for discussing issues of transport, energy, and humanitarian integration, as well as for developing common approaches to ensuring regional stability.

The choice of Termez as the venue for the dialogue is deliberate and is explained by the city’s geostrategic location at the crossroads of Central and South Asia — that is, the “connecting point” of interregional connectivity. The establishment of this dialogue platform also symbolizes a shift toward a more systematic and coordinated interregional policy, especially in conditions of global instability.

At the same time, Central and South Asia, despite their significant economic, demographic, and resource potential, remain among the least integrated regions in the world. Strengthening connectivity between them represents not only an economic necessity but also a strategic imperative dictated by the goals of ensuring regional security, sustainable development, and stability.

Historically, Central and South Asia have been closely connected through trade and cultural routes, most notably as part of the Great Silk Road. However, geopolitical upheavals during the 19th and 20th centuries—including the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan and competition among external powers—led to the disruption of these ties and increased mutual isolation between the regions.

Today, in the context of globalization, restoring these lost connections has become an objective necessity for international trade and economic integration. For Central Asian countries, access to seaports is critical to expanding their foreign economic activities. Meanwhile, South Asia is interested in energy and water resources, as well as gaining access to new markets. The economic complementarity of these regions opens broad opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation.

Uzbekistan plays a leading role in advancing the agenda of regional connectivity. In December 2020, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasized the development of the southern foreign policy vector as a strategic priority in his address to the Oliy Majlis. Key objectives include intensifying interaction with South Asia, supporting peaceful resolution in Afghanistan, and restoring Afghanistan’s role as a natural bridge between the two regions.

A significant milestone in this initiative was the international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities,” held in Tashkent in 2021 at the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan. This event marked a shift from declarative statements to practical steps towards bridging the two regions.

The conference brought together over 250 representatives from 44 countries and around 30 international organizations. Several initiatives were presented to create a systemic approach to bringing Central and South Asia closer, including the development of trade and investment, removal of barriers to goods, services, and capital, implementation of transport and infrastructure projects, and digital integration in trade and logistics with international support. Measures were also proposed to strengthen food security, combat drug trafficking and terrorism, promote environmental cooperation, and develop tourism and humanitarian ties through educational programs and forums.

Following these efforts, it was proposed at the conference to draft and submit a resolution to the UN General Assembly that would formalize common approaches, key principles, and dialogue directions between Central and South Asia. This initiative received broad support, and the resolution was unanimously adopted at the 76th session of the UN General Assembly.

The practical activation of interregional cooperation supports the realization of this vision, fully aligning with the efforts of countries in both regions to deepen partnerships. These efforts are already yielding tangible results, particularly in economic interactions, where a sustained positive trend is observed.

Where South Asia was previously viewed mainly through the lens of security threats related to Afghanistan, recent years have seen a shift toward constructive cooperation. For example, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Pakistan grew from $36.5 million in 2017 to over $400 million in 2024. During Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Uzbekistan in February 2025, both sides agreed to increase this figure to $2 billion and establish a joint transport and logistics company.

Positive dynamics are also evident in relations with India, where bilateral trade increased from $323 million in 2017 to $1 billion in 2024. These figures reflect not only growing economic interest but also stronger political will to deepen cooperation.

Afghanistan holds a special place in the regional architecture as Uzbekistan’s fifth-largest export market. Over the past five years, trade turnover between the two countries has increased 1.5 times, surpassing $1 billion in 2024. Uzbekistan hosts 550 enterprises with Afghan capital participation, of which 443 are fully Afghan-owned. Joint projects cover sectors such as food processing, construction materials production, agriculture, tourism, and textiles.

A significant step toward strengthening transport connectivity was the establishment of the Termez Cargo Center, an international transport and logistics hub in Termez. Operating on a “single window” principle, the center offers a wide range of services including customs clearance, banking and tax operations, sanitary control, certification, currency exchange, transportation, and hotel services. Special attention is given to humanitarian logistics, with goods destined for Afghanistan and neighboring countries receiving simplified and prioritized customs procedures.

Uzbekistan’s initiatives have shaped a new strategic agenda with South Asia in recent years. Considering the region’s population of over 2 billion and a combined GDP of around $5 trillion, South Asia represents one of the most promising directions for expanding Uzbekistan’s foreign economic presence.

Enhancing regional connectivity contributes not only to trade growth but also to creating conditions for sustainable development—through more equitable resource distribution, reduced transportation costs, and economic diversification. Developing transport infrastructure remains a key focus in this context.

A flagship project in this area is the construction of the “Termez–Naibabad–Logar–Kharlachi” railway, initiated by Uzbekistan’s president in 2018. Currently, shipping a container from Central Asia to international ports costs five times more than from countries with direct access to the sea. This project is expected to reduce transport costs nearly threefold—from $900 to $286—and cut transit time from 35 days to 3–5 days. This will radically transform the region’s economic dynamics, open new export opportunities, and attract investments.

For landlocked Central Asian countries, including Uzbekistan, which must cross the territories of two states, reducing logistics costs is critical. On average, these countries spend about 18% of export revenues on transportation, compared to about 9% for coastal states. Moreover, according to UNCTAD, in some cases, transport costs for imports can reach 60% of the value of imported goods in Central Asia.

However, the technical implementation of infrastructure projects is only one side of the process. Their effective operation depends on ensuring sustainable security along transit routes. In the absence of lasting peace in Afghanistan, trans-Afghan corridors largely remain at the conceptual stage. This underscores the inseparable link between economic connectivity and political stability: without a reliable security framework, regional initiatives will face significant challenges.

Energy projects such as CASA-1000 and TAPI also play a vital role, aimed at meeting South Asia’s energy needs and diversifying Central Asia’s export routes. The TAPI project, for example, envisages transporting 33 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India. Its implementation is supported by international investors including the Asian Development Bank and major energy corporations such as Gazprom, Chevron, and ExxonMobil.

Nonetheless, the success of these projects depends not only on economic rationale but also on political will, security assurance, and investors’ readiness to accept risks associated with regional instability.

In addition to traditional energy cooperation, nuclear energy collaboration is a promising area. Kazakhstan, possessing the world’s largest uranium reserves, is actively expanding exports, including supplies to India. According to agreements, Kazakhstan plans to deliver up to 2,100 tons of uranium by 2030, partially meeting India’s growing demand for nuclear fuel. This also strengthens mutual economic cooperation and expands strategic engagement.

Thus, building sustainable connectivity between Central and South Asia is a complex task requiring a comprehensive approach—from joint infrastructure projects and expanded energy cooperation to strengthening trust and coordinating security efforts. Uzbekistan’s initiatives create unique opportunities to launch a new stage of interregional integration.

In this context, the President of Uzbekistan’s proposal to hold regular summits of Central and South Asian heads of state gains special importance as a key platform for promoting interregional connectivity.

Moreover, enhancing connectivity contributes to the stability and sustainable development of Afghanistan, which acts as the backbone of the entire connectivity architecture. Implementing interregional projects involving Afghanistan will help restore its economy and eliminate the social basis of terrorism. Essentially, these initiatives are not only economically but also socially significant, promising a multiplier effect across the entire macro-region of Central and South Asia.

The future of Central and South Asia as a unified, stable, and sustainable region is being shaped today—through decisions, efforts, and initiatives aimed at strengthening connectivity, trust, and sustainable development. Uzbekistan’s progressive course and the active engagement of other regional countries open broad horizons for multifaceted cooperation.

 

Lead Research Fellow, International Institute for Central Asia

Tanbaev Ozod